Expect deeper price drawdowns as Bitcoin’s ‘maturing phase’ continues, says analyst

Can Bitcoin investors relax?

The recent brutal price drawdown isn’t the end of the cycle but instead a sign that the market is maturing, says Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum bank, who argues that sharper swings should be expected as Bitcoin transitions from fringe speculative asset to a more established market.

“From a cycle perspective, we see a maturing phase rather than an ending one,” Dori wrote in a Thursday note to clients. “Volatility and drawdowns could indeed become more pronounced — but the macro environment remains supportive.”

Bitcoin’s correction looks excessive rather than structural, according to Dori.

Despite maximum fear in sentiment indicators and massive deleveraging across different platforms, on-chain fundamentals continue improving, he wrote. The number of addresses that consistently accumulate Bitcoin has nearly doubled since October, while exchange reserves hit new lows.

Meanwhile, macro tailwinds remain intact with hopes that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in December.

But still, the top cryptocurrency has fallen more than 20% from its October highs, erasing nearly all of its year-to-date gains, which has also pushed the broader crypto market into negative territory.

The selloff has been amplified by a toxic cocktail of macro shocks, market structure stress, and liquidity pressure.

Depending on who you ask, Bitcoin has a long way down to go. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on Linkedin that $50,000 is on the table for 2026. Even the permabull Arthur Hayes, known for his six-figure targets for Bitcoin, has alerted investors that the top crypto could be in for some more downside.

Others remain bullish. On a November 24 episode of What Bitcoin Did, Bitcoin analyst James Check said that his base case for 2026 remains $150,000 with a possibility of heading to $200,000.

‘Disproportionally negative’

Why has Bitcoin fallen so hard? Well, the end of 2025 has brought a cascade of negative catalysts.

First, the US and China trade war escalated once again. Second, the historically long US government shutdown limited macro visibility and delayed key data releases. Moreover, the stronger-than-expected labour data reduced prospects for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Adding fuel to the fire is the market structure. A historic liquidation cascade triggered by excessive leverage and immature price oracles wiped out overleveraged positions to a staggering tune of $19 billion.

Finally, liquidity dried up as the US Treasury built up its cash account and digital asset treasury companies exhausted their buying power.

“The reaction has been disproportionally negative,” Dori wrote.

2026 looks healthy

To be sure, market conditions should improve as 2026 arrives.

Business cycle indicators point to an acceleration driven by services, while many eyes are on the Fed to see if the agency puts an end to quantitative tightening in December.

Regulatory momentum continues despite the government shutdown delaying the Clarity Act.

So can Bitcoin investors kick their feet up? Not exactly.

Dori’s view is that even though there are some attractive buy opportunities for Bitcoin right now, “the current environment is uncomfortable.”

But that definitely beats a bear market.

Pedro Solimano is DL News’ Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at [e-mail].