UK digital asset custodian Copper believes Bitcoin’s months-long slide is approaching its final stage, with market dynamics now resembling “late downtrend behaviour,” the phase that historically precedes major reversals.
Copper, the London-based institutional crypto custodian founded by former UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, said in its Wednesday Opening Bell note that the mechanics driving Bitcoin’s decline have changed.
According to the firm, the early part of the current downtrend was dominated by high sensitivity to ETF flows, redemptions reliably pushed prices lower. But that relationship has now broken down.
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ETF Influence Has Collapsed — A Key Late-Downtrend Signal
Copper’s analysts say the 30-day elasticity between ETF flows and returns has dropped to one of the lowest levels of the year, a tell-tale sign that the market has already absorbed heavy selling.
Copper has grouped Bitcoin ETF holdings into simple “bands,” structural zones showing where Bitcoin’s price tends to settle depending on how much Bitcoin ETFs are holding. They suggest that these bands have been surprisingly consistent:
- $40K–$60K: anchored by lower ETF ownership
- $70K–$90K: mid-level accumulation
- $100K–$120K: the upper structural plateau
These, Copper says, are not random clusters. They behave like stair-step price shelves that Bitcoin climbs as ETF demand grows.
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Copper’s analysis shows that when ETFs first push Bitcoin into a new ownership band, the next 10 days historically see 10–13% gains. The market adjusts to the new level of institutional ownership during this period. However, once ETF inflows stabilize within that band, forward returns tend to flatten, meaning prices stop moving sharply and the market enters a more sideways phase.
Market is absorbing ETF selling
Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000, but Copper says ETF holdings of BTC are mostly concentrated at the top of their historical range, in the highest ownership band, historically associated with the $100K–$120K price zone.
According to Copper, it’s not just the band itself that matters, but how Bitcoin behaves within it.
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This, Copper says, explains why Bitcoin has sometimes risen even on negative ETF flow days, gains are absorbed, but without sustained inflows the market cannot build a new uptrend. According to the analysts, the market is in the final stage of the downtrend. A return to the $100K–$120K range depends on ETF flows shifting significantly, either retracing to a lower band for short-term upside, or pushing higher with strong accumulation to trigger a genuine breakout.
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Coinbase Signals Positive Developments in Europe
While short-term signals remain mixed, the broader European institutional landscape is telling a different story.
Keith Grose, the new CEO of Coinbase UK, says the region is undergoing a structural shift in how regulated institutions engage with digital assets. One example: the Czech National Bank’s recent decision to test a small, ring-fenced digital asset portfolio, one of the first controlled pilots by an EU central bank.
Grose says moves like this are early but meaningful.
He adds that while the public may not yet feel the shift — “You’re not paying for groceries with Bitcoin in the UK yet” — Europe is quietly building the foundation for digital assets to become a meaningful part of future financial and payments infrastructure.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-in-late-downtrend-copper/
