Block expects gross profit to reach $15.8 billion in 2028 with mid‑teens annual growth

Block said it now expects gross profit to hit about $15.8 billion in 2028, with mid‑teens annual growth for the next three years.

The company laid out these targets at its first investor day since 2022, dropping the numbers at a time when Wall Street has been cutting it no slack.

The stock is down more than 30% in 2025, even as major indexes have kept climbing. Trading in Block shares was briefly halted when the outlook came out, and the stock shot up 9% when trading restarted.

Two weeks before this event, Block missed revenue estimates for the sixth quarter in a row. The company has been trying to move away from a crowded point‑of‑sale market by expanding Cash App services and rolling out new AI tools for sellers.

The fresh forecasts aim to reset expectations after a long stretch of uneven results.

Block outlines financial targets

Block said adjusted operating income should rise about 30% a year, reaching $4.6 billion in 2028. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow in the low‑30% range, landing around $5.50.

Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja said that Block is stepping into what she called a new execution phase. She said, “Since 2022, our last investor day, we’re nearly double the size from a gross profit perspective,” and added that EBITDA “more than tripled.”

For 2026, Block expects $11.98 billion in gross profit, a 17% annual increase. The company sees adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS both climbing more than 30% that year, reaching $2.7 billion and $3.20.

Block also introduced a new non‑GAAP cash flow metric built to show how much capital is needed to expand its lending products. The company expects that number to exceed $4 billion in 2028, or roughly 25% of gross profit.

Ahuja said Block is now using a “rule of 40” approach, which combines revenue growth rate and profit margin into a single benchmark. She said Block expects to reach that mark this year after reorganizing its operations under one roadmap and one technical setup. In her words:

“That transformation has resulted in us moving faster, with more connected decisions across our ecosystem.”

Block also expanded its share repurchase program by $5 billion. Before this move, the company still had $1.1 billion left from the prior authorization as of September 30. The earlier plan allowed for up to $4 billion in buybacks.

CEO Jack Dorsey, who started the company as Square back in 2009, attended the investor event. He has not been very visible in recent years, but his presence marked a rare appearance during a moment when Block is trying to reset investor expectations with hard numbers rather than hype.

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