Analysis: The current situation is closer to the end of the economic cycle, and this week's macroeconomic data will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.

PANews reported on November 19th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin briefly fell below the key psychological level of $90,000 this week due to rising expectations of interest rate hikes and continued outflows from ETFs. The decline was exacerbated by reduced liquidity, highlighting its increased sensitivity to changes in the macroeconomic situation. At this time, the market is repricing its expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the probability of a December rate cut changing from almost certain to roughly flat, putting pressure on maturity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the stock market remained relatively stable due to strong corporate earnings.

With the US government reopening and official data releases resuming, the market is closely watching this week's indicators, particularly labor market data and the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which incorporates the latest job openings data, to assess their impact on the Federal Reserve's decisions. The US economy is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with high-income households exhibiting resilient spending while low-income groups face increasing pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that a December rate cut is not a certainty. The current situation is closer to the end of the economic cycle than a recession, with strong household balance sheets and resilient corporate capital spending providing a buffer against downside risks. This week's data will determine whether the Bitcoin decline is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader shift in risk aversion.