Short-term Bitcoin holders have transferred 29,400 BTC to exchanges at a loss, intensifying concerns about downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
The recent sell-off coincides with substantial distribution from long-term holders. These seasoned investors have offloaded approximately 815,000 BTC over the past month. This marks the highest distribution level since January 2024, adding complexity to current market dynamics.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $96,627, suggesting a 6.11% decline in the last 24 hours.
BTC price action over the past 24 Hours (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Long-Term Holders Follow Historical Patterns
Analysis from Glassnode indicates that profit-taking by long-term holders has increased from 12,500 BTC per day in early July to 26,500 BTC currently. Contrary to alarming narratives suggesting coordinated dumping, the data indicate standard bull-market behavior.
On-chain metrics indicate that long-term holders have consistently realized profits throughout this cycle. Their activity mirrors patterns observed in previous bull runs. By late August, profit-taking had reached levels comparable to prior cycle peaks.
Whale wallets aged seven years or older show interesting spending patterns. These addresses, which process more than 1,000 BTC per hour, exhibit regular and evenly spaced transactions. The frequency suggests a persistent, staggered distribution rather than panic selling.
Bitcoin holders realized net profits of $3.0 billion on November 7. This figure aligns with October’s profit levels, indicating continued strength among holders. Net realized losses remain virtually nonexistent, suggesting holders have not capitulated.
Critical Support Levels and Market Structure
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted that investors who bought Bitcoin six to twelve months ago have a cost basis near $94,000. Ju stated the bear cycle cannot be confirmed unless Bitcoin loses that level. He advocates for patience rather than premature conclusions.
Alex Adler identified two key correction levels: $87,000 and $74,000. The $87,000 mark derives from a conservative valuation model that explains 87% of price variation through on-chain activity. The model carries a backtest score of 95 out of 100.
Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average could trigger a deeper correction. CryptoQuant’s research suggests this scenario would accelerate downward momentum and test lower support zones.
Hunter Horsley from Bitwise offered a different perspective on market cycles. He argued that the traditional four-year cycle model belongs to a bygone era. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the new administration have created a transformed market structure with new participants and dynamics.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12356/bitcoin-price-analysis-short-term-holders-exit-as-btc-tests-critical-102-k-support
