Bitcoin Struggles to Hold Gains After Heavy Spot Selling

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since June before rebounding slightly above $104,000.
• Analysts say the decline is now driven by spot selling rather than leveraged liquidations.
• Long-term holders have sold or moved roughly 400,000 BTC in the past month.
• Experts warn that the current downtrend could persist for several more months.

The slide marks a new phase in the ongoing correction, raising questions about whether traders’ confidence is weakening after months of steady optimism.

The cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7.4% on Tuesday before managing a mild rebound, climbing back to roughly $104,000 on Wednesday. That’s still more than 20% below the record high it touched only a month ago. Analysts say this level now represents a make-or-break zone for the market, with $112,000 emerging as a key resistance point following repeated rejections.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, described the current range as “the crucial level” for Bitcoin, noting that it’s where traders will be watching closely for any potential bounces. “There’s a ton of volatility on the markets right now,” he said, suggesting that while $112,000 has proven difficult to reclaim, this zone could attract buyers if sentiment stabilizes.

Spot Selling Dominates as Leverage Retreats

Unlike October’s flash crash, which was caused by cascading liquidations in the futures market, the current selloff appears to be rooted in steady selling on the spot market. This marks a major shift in Bitcoin’s behavior, as recent downturns have typically been triggered by overleveraged traders being forced to unwind positions.

Data from CoinGlass shows that around $2 billion worth of crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours—far less than the $19 billion in forced selling seen during October’s collapse. That suggests that this decline is less about panic-driven liquidations and more about a gradual loss of confidence.

Market researcher Markus Thielen of 10x Research said that the change in dynamics points to “a more structural form of selling.” According to his data, long-term holders have offloaded approximately 400,000 BTC, worth about $45 billion. “We’re witnessing conviction eroding,” Thielen said. “The imbalance between old holders exiting and new investors entering the market is now steering the price direction.”

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Profit-Taking Among Veteran Holders

Further analysis from K33 Research backs up this pattern. Vetle Lunde, the firm’s head of research, noted that more than 319,000 Bitcoin have been “reactivated” in the past month. Many of these coins had been sitting idle for six to twelve months—an indicator of profit-taking rather than internal reshuffling.

Lunde explained that while part of this activity may come from exchanges moving reserves, a substantial portion represents actual selling. “We’re seeing older wallets distributing coins to the market, which is typically a bearish signal when done at this scale,” he said.

Thielen also highlighted the role of “mega whales”—wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin—that started trimming positions earlier this year. Institutional buyers attempted to absorb that supply through summer, but since the October 10 crash, the inflow of new capital has weakened significantly. “We broke through critical on-chain indicators, and many investors are now underwater,” Thielen said.

Whale Accumulation Drops Sharply

Smaller whales—wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—have also slowed their accumulation pace. Thielen believes this lack of demand among mid-sized holders is a key factor preventing a strong rebound. “The whales are just not buying,” he said. “We’re seeing a clear cooling-off period after an intense accumulation phase earlier this year.”

According to Thielen, the process could extend well into 2026 if historical patterns repeat. During the 2021–2022 bear market, large holders sold over one million Bitcoin over nearly a year, triggering an extended consolidation phase. “If this unfolds at a similar pace,” he added, “we could see another six months of slow distribution before sentiment improves.”

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

While Thielen doesn’t predict a catastrophic plunge, he expects the market to remain range-bound or drift slightly lower. “I’m not calling for a major collapse, but consolidation seems the most likely scenario,” he said, identifying $85,000 as his downside target before a potential turnaround.

At the same time, analysts like van de Poppe believe that technical conditions could support a short-term rebound. With leverage largely flushed out and oversold indicators flashing on several timeframes, Bitcoin could stabilize if long-term buyers step back in. However, until that happens, the market remains vulnerable to fresh declines if sentiment fails to recover.

For now, Bitcoin is caught between structural selling pressure and technical relief, leaving traders watching closely to see whether $100,000 can hold as a lasting support zone or if a deeper correction lies ahead.

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