Key Insights:
- The Bitcoin price declined to $103,612 on November 4 in the asian hours.
- The dollar index climbed to a three-month high near 99.886, reducing demand for non-yielding cryptocurrency assets.
- On-chain data from Glassnode suggested that the Bitcoin price could retest $104,000 as short-term holders moved into a loss-making territory.
Bitcoin price traded at 103,667 as of press time, down 3.3% in the past 24 hours, as multiple macroeconomic and technical factors converged to pressure the price.
The selloff occurred against a backdrop of strengthening dollar conditions and defensive positioning ahead of critical US economic data releases.
The DXY dollar index stood at 99.886 as of press time, up 0.2% on the day and approaching a three-month peak following a 0.8% weekly advance.
The greenback’s rally typically weighs on the Bitcoin price because digital assets often serve as non-yielding alternatives in investor portfolios.
Rising dollar values incentivize capital rotation toward dollar-denominated instruments offering positive real yields, thereby diminishing demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Market participants positioned themselves cautiously ahead of a series of high-impact US economic releases scheduled throughout the week.
The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance in its latest policy statement, prompting traders to reduce risk exposure in anticipation of data that could influence the direction of monetary policy.
ISM manufacturing data arrived on November 3, while the services PMI and ADP employment figures were scheduled for release on November 5.
Bitcoin Price Faces Additional Headwinds From ETF Flows
The week culminates on November 7 with the nonfarm payrolls report, the most closely monitored labor market indicator for Federal Reserve policy decisions.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, also due November 7, completed a data-heavy calendar that shaped expectations for interest rate trajectory and dollar strength.
Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.15 billion in cumulative outflows over the last three days of October. The exodus removed a structural support mechanism that previously absorbed selling from crypto-native market participants during earlier declines.
Exchange-traded fund flows functioned as demand stabilizers throughout 2024 and 2025, with institutional allocations providing a buffer against retail capitulation.
The recent outflows eliminated this cushion precisely as macro headwinds intensified, amplifying Bitcoin price volatility.
ETF redemptions signaled that institutional investors were reducing their exposure ahead of uncertain economic data and potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
Nearly $1.3 billion in liquidations occurred across cryptocurrency exchanges in the 24 hours as of press time, according to Coinglass data.
The cascade of forced position closures added immediate downward pressure to the Bitcoin price as leveraged long positions unwound.
Liquidation events created self-reinforcing selling cycles, where initial price declines triggered margin calls, resulting in additional forced sales that further pushed prices lower.
Bitcoin Price Technical Outlook Points to $100,000 Retest
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode published an analysis on November 3, indicating that Bitcoin has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of top buyers’ supply since July.
The data showed that BTC was trading below the acquisition price of recent high-volume purchasers, increasing the probability of a retest toward the 0.8-quantile cost basis, which is near $104,000.
Top buyers faced unrealized losses, creating conditions for capitulation as these holders transferred coins to participants with stronger conviction or longer time horizons.
The transfer process from weak to strong hands historically required extended time periods or deeper price discounts to complete.
Short-term Holders Suffering Losses
Glassnode noted that short-term holders experienced renewed pressure as recent buyers moved into loss territory.
The cohort of investors who acquired Bitcoin within the previous 155 days represented a key demographic for gauging market sentiment and potential selling pressure.
Historical patterns demonstrated that periods of short-term holder stress and capitulation often marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors with longer time horizons.
The pain experienced by recent buyers at elevated price levels created conditions where conviction-driven participants could acquire supply at discounted valuations.
The Bitcoin price could chase the $100,000 level if current conditions persist or deteriorate, according to on-chain analysis.
A retest of this technical level would represent approximately 2.6% downside from press-time prices.
Following any move toward $100,000, analysts anticipated a period of lateral price action as market participants digested the decline and a new equilibrium formed between buyers and sellers.
The convergence of dollar strength, ETF outflows, defensive positioning ahead of economic data, and leveraged position liquidations created a challenging environment for the Bitcoin price in early November.
The upcoming week’s economic releases and Federal Reserve policy implications held potential to shift sentiment in either direction, with labor market strength or weakness determining whether dollar appreciation continued or reversed course.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/11/04/why-bitcoin-price-could-retest-100000/
