Bitcoin’s November Track Record: 8 Wins in 12 Years

TLDR

• November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month historically, with positive returns in 8 of the last 12 years and an average gain of 46.02% (heavily skewed by 2013’s 449.35% surge)
• The median November return is 10.82%, while excluding 2013’s outlier brings the average down to roughly 9.35%
• Major market turning points have occurred in November and December, marking both cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021) and bottoms (2018, 2022)
• Bitcoin currently trades around $114,487 after struggling to maintain momentum above $115,000 following a brief rally on US-China trade optimism
• Analysts cite the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision as a key factor that could determine if Bitcoin breaks above its current resistance level

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Bitcoin traders are watching the calendar closely as November approaches. Historical data from Coinglass shows the month has delivered positive returns in 8 of the past 12 years.

Source: Coinglass

The average November gain sits at 46.02% across data spanning 2013 to 2025. However, this figure is heavily influenced by November 2013, when Bitcoin surged 449.35% in a single month.

When that outlier is removed, the average drops to approximately 9.35%. The median return of 10.82% offers a more balanced view of typical November performance.

The winning months include 2013 (449.35%), 2014 (12.82%), 2015 (19.27%), 2016 (5.42%), 2017 (53.48%), 2020 (42.95%), 2023 (8.81%), and 2024 (37.29%). The losing months were 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).

Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that November and December have historically marked major turning points. These months saw cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, as well as cycle lows in 2018 and 2022.

The current market shows mixed signals. Bitcoin recently pushed past $115,000 after positive news about US-China trade talks.

But the price has since fallen back and is struggling to maintain levels above that threshold. Bitcoin currently trades at $114,487.

Federal Reserve Decision Looms

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that selling pressure has eased and overall profitability has improved. However, network activity remains quiet and market participation is selective.

Source: Glassnode

The firm describes the current environment as cautious and range-bound. It expects this pattern to continue until new demand enters the market.

Bitcoin futures open interest dropped from $50 billion to $35 billion during October 2025. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting began on October 28.

Markets expect Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. Analysts view this decision as a potential trigger for Bitcoin and altcoin price movements in the fourth quarter.

Mining Stocks Show Strength

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that traditional equity indices like the Nasdaq continue hitting new highs. Bitcoin, however, trades about 6% below its pre-crash level from October 10.

Pillows warned that weakness in equity markets could spill over into crypto markets. This could lead to another round of leveraged position liquidations.

Despite Bitcoin’s price struggles, mining stocks are performing well. Macro strategy platform ecoinometrics reports that Bitcoin mining stocks are currently outperforming BTC itself.

This strength comes from miners redirecting computing power toward artificial intelligence workloads. These AI-related shifts have helped miners remain profitable during market downturns.

October’s “Uptober” rally disappointed some traders, with Bitcoin up only 3% for the month. However, analysts remain optimistic based on historical patterns.

Analyst Merlijn The Trader stated that Bitcoin has entered its “favorite quarter.” He highlighted that Bitcoin delivered an 80% return in Q4 2024 and sees similar conditions now.

The historical data shows November’s returns have ranged from the highest monthly gain on record to losses exceeding 36%. The month’s track record suggests heightened volatility rather than guaranteed gains.

Bitcoin futures open interest remains below recent peaks. Market participants are waiting for catalysts that could push prices decisively in either direction.

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