Bitcoin Reclaims $110k But Fed Data Vacuum Raises Policy Risk

Key takeaways

• BTC reclaimed support at $110,000 and trades near $111,200 after a modest intraday lift; ETH edged toward $4,000.
• Spot flows mixed: Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $20.33 million net inflow (BlackRock IBIT led with $108 million). On the other hand, Ethereum ETFs saw another day of outflows worth $128 million.
• Long-term holders are still distributing, however, the Dolphin cohort (100–1,000 BTC) now holds ~26% of supply and remains the marginal buyer.
• Elevated open interest can amplify volatility with key liquidation clusters sitting above $114,000.
• Macro shock: U.S. government shutdown enters day 24; ADP suspended data sharing to the Fed, with policymakers facing an unprecedented information vacuum ahead of the October FOMC.