Reuters Survey: Fed Expected to Cut Rates Twice More This Year, 2026 Path Remains Uncertain

October 21, 2025 — According to a latest Reuters survey, most economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver two more rate cuts before the end of 2025, as growth momentum slows and the labor market softens. However, the survey highlights that the interest rate outlook for 2026 remains highly uncertain.

Among more than 80 economists polled, the majority agreed that the September rate cut marked the start of a policy easing cycle. With inflation gradually cooling and credit conditions tightening, the Fed is projected to lower rates again in December and early next year, totaling around 50 basis points of cuts.

Still, analysts caution that a rebound in energy prices or unexpectedly sticky inflation could prompt the Fed to pause or slow the pace of cuts. For 2026, forecasts diverge — some expect rates to stay near neutral levels, while others foresee potential rate hikes to contain inflation risks.

Experts note that the Fed will remain data-dependent, balancing inflation control and growth stability. Investors are advised to watch U.S. dollar trends and interest rate expectations, which will play a crucial role in shaping global market risk sentiment and asset valuations.