The USD/INR pair ended Monday’s session with almost 0.1% losses to near 88.00. On Tuesday, Indian markets are closed due to Diwali Laxmi Pujan and will also remain closed on Wednesday on account of Balipratipada.
On Monday, the USD/INR faced selling pressure even as the US Dollar (USD) traded firmly due to receding trade tensions between the United States (US) and China. Trade frictions between the world’s two largest powerhouses have eased as President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that he will reach a deal with Beijing after meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the delayed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Friday. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders seem confident that the Fed will cut interest rates in both policy meetings remaining this year.
Meanwhile, the outlook of the Indian Rupee remains uncertain as trade tensions between India and the US have not been resolved yet. Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened that higher tariffs on imports from New Delhi will remain intact unless they halt buying seaborne crude oil from Russia.
USD/INR started the week on a cautious note, dropping to near 88.00. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 88.13 is acting as a key barrier for the USD/INR bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum could emerge if the RSI stays below that level.
Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 and the July 28 low of 86.55 would act as major support levels for the pair. On the upside, the 20-day EMA near 88.50 and the all-time high around 89.10 would be key barriers.
USD/INR daily chart
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-price-forecast-50-day-ema-continues-to-provide-support-to-indian-rupee-202510210843
