Kalshi Shows 69% Odds Bitcoin Hits $50K Before $100K

Traders on prediction platform Kalshi are pricing 69% odds that Bitcoin (BTC) sinks to $50,000 before it climbs back to $100,000.

Key Points:

Kalshi Bitcoin Odds Turn Bearish

A market snapshot from Kalshi Crypto showed traders assigning a 69% chance that Bitcoin touches the lower mark first, a defensive read on where the coin heads next. The contract sits among the regulated platform's Bitcoin price markets, where buyers stake real money on which threshold prints first, a question of sequence rather than a long-term target.

That split frames the whole debate.

A slide to $50,000 would track tighter macro conditions, weaker exchange-traded fund demand, or a fresh wave of risk-off selling across crypto and equities alike. A run to $100,000 would mean the reverse, with deeper liquidity, renewed institutional buying, and the kind of reflexive upside that bulls have waited months to see. The odds are not an analyst forecast or a model output, though, and they can reset within hours as spot price and positioning shift.

Also Read: Bitcoin Bottom Signal Emerges As Scaramucci Eyes Late 2026 Rally

Scaramucci Counters With Bottom Call

The bearish pricing sits against a louder bullish case from one prominent investor. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci has argued that fading retail interest, weak search demand, and an oversold RSI mark a classic cycle bottom rather than a structurally broken market.

He keeps more than 70% of his net worth in the asset, calls the slump a garden-variety correction, and holds a $1 million long-term target intact.

The two camps read one tape and reach opposite calls, one fixed on downside risk and the other on buyer apathy. Thin, sleepy markets can lurch on a small demand shock, since few traders sit positioned for upside, and Scaramucci treats that apathy as accumulation fuel for the next leg. He ties the pattern to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, buffered this time by steady ETF inflows, and pegs the rally to late 2026 or early 2027.

Bitcoin traded near $63,800 in mid-June after several days in the red, with its weekly RSI sliding toward the oversold zone below 30. The coin last held six figures before an autumn reversal, and now sits well down from the October record above $125,000, a drawdown near 50% that runs shallower than the 60% to 70% slides of earlier cycles.

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