NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 27: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees runs after hitting a 2-run RBI double during the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on September 27, 2025 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
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New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh have rewritten the history books of Major League Baseball throughout the 2025 regular season courtesy of their offensive exploits and statistical achievements. Raleigh has set home run records for the most in a single season by a catcher and switch hitter while being the seventh ball player to hit at least 60 home runs in a season. The magnificence of Judge is not only limited to the American League as he leads Major League Baseball in several offensive categories while pursuing his first batting title. Debates regarding who should win the American League Most Valuable Player Award are failing to produce a clear-cut decision in the eyes of fans and pundits given how both Judge and Raleigh equally deserve the award. Raleigh has been the headline story for most of the season, but it’s hard to ignore how Judge defines the concept of being valuable through years of elite consistency.
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) have presented 30 members with the difficult task of choosing between two worthy candidates. A question of importance every year, there isn’t a singular definition of what it means to be a recipient of the Most Valuable Player Award in either league. The rules shared with the voters by the BBWAA are generic in nature regarding the criteria and have been in place since 1931: value of a ball player to his ball club in terms of offense and defense, number of ball games played during the regular season, character, disposition, loyalty and effort. Former winners are eligible, and voters can support the candidacies of multiple ball players from the same ball club. In other words, the process is open for interpretation by the voters.
Eight Most Valuable Player Award races have been decided by less than five points since 1938 when the BBWAA revised the voting process according to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. Only once did the voting result in a tie. In 1979, the National League Most Valuable Player Award was shared between St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Keith Hernandez and Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Willie Stargell. It’s unlikely a tie will occur between Judge and Raleigh given the oddity in 1979 where Stargell was left off four ballots after securing the most first-place votes (10) while Hernandez was the only ball player whose name appeared on every ballot.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 24: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners celebrates his solo home run, his 60th of the season, during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at T-Mobile Park on September 24, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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Aaron Judge And Superior Statistical Excellence
The argument in support of Judge’s candidacy begins with how he has normalized superior statistical excellence. According to Baseball-Reference, there have only been two ball players who have hit 50 home runs in a season and surpassed an adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+) of 200 at least three times: Judge and Babe Ruth. Judge is tied with Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa for the most seasons of at least 50 home runs (four). The 6-foot-7 Judge could become the tallest ball player to win a batting title and the third who hit at least 50 home runs in the same season. The other two are Hall of Famers Jimmie Foxx (1938) and Mickey Mantle (1956) who also won the American League Most Valuable Player Award.
Judge’s superpowers extend well beyond hitting home runs. According to MLB Network, he could become the first ball player since Miguel Cabrera in 2013 to lead Major League Baseball in the three slash line statistics: batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG). In 2013, the Detroit Tigers third baseman won his second American League Most Valuable Player Award. On-base plus slugging (OPS) is a statistic of great importance to front office executives when evaluating offensive talent. Judge leads everyone in the sport with a 1.149 OPS while the major league average is .719 OPS according to Baseball-Reference.
Aaron Judge’s Advantage In WAR
Voters will look for guidance in the wins above replacement (WAR) statistic when making this incredibly difficult decision. However, which version of WAR will provide the best insights? FanGraphs’ version (fWAR) significantly helps Raleigh as it includes catcher framing (FRM) whereas Baseball-Reference’s version (bWAR) uses defensive runs saved (DRS) and excludes catcher framing (FRM). Whether it is FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference, Judge is superior to Raleigh in both versions of WAR. Prior to the final day of ball games in the 2025 regular season, Judge has a 10.1 WAR versus Raleigh’s 9.0 WAR according to FanGraphs’ calculation whereas Judge has a 9.8 WAR versus Raleigh’s 7.3 WAR according to Baseball-Reference.
Raleigh’s accomplishments as a switch-hitting catcher have been astonishing given the physical and mental demands associated with the position. According to FanGraphs, Raleigh is one of five catchers who have played at least 1,000 innings behind home plate this season and ranks second in framing with an 11.0 FRM among qualified catchers. Many have been extolling the praises of Raleigh for his decision making as a catcher given how game calling is not a strategic element factored into any version of the WAR statistic. Advocates of Raleigh’s candidacy use this rationale to explain the differences between him and Judge in both calculations of the WAR statistic.
Regardless of posting the greatest offensive season for a catcher in baseball history, Raleigh trails Judge by a large margin in several statistical categories known by acronyms such as BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Let’s also not forget batting average on balls in play (BABIP), isolated power (ISO) and win probability added (WPA). An important question to ponder is whether voters will use Raleigh’s excellence in catcher framing as a means of bridging the offensive gap between him and Judge in statistics other than home runs (HR) and runs batted in (RBI).
Aaron Judge And Statistical Expectations
Cal Raleigh is putting the final touches on a historic season for a catcher, but he is not the best ball player in the American League as that honor belongs to Aaron Judge. However, that doesn’t mean Raleigh won’t win the Most Valuable Player Award. Raleigh appears to be the sentimental favorite based on hitting 60 home runs as a switch-hitting catcher and high degree of defensive difficulty regarding the position. A valid argument can be made that people are suffering from fatigue when it comes to Judge and view his superior statistical excellence as an expectation. Don’t for a moment take for granted Judge’s regular flirtations with at least a 10.0 WAR and 200 OPS+ given how these achievements are only commonplace for inner-circle Hall of Famers.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynemcdonnell/2025/09/28/why-aaron-judge-defines-valuable-through-years-of-elite-consistency/
