Analysis: Crypto market enters seasonal downturn, BTC short-term implied volatility falls below 40%

PANews June 19 news, Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a statement saying that the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that recent inflation expectations are still high and tariffs are the main upside risk. Officials reiterated that they will take a wait-and-see attitude and wait for the inflation path to be clearer. Although there is a view that the weak labor market will prompt a policy shift, the US economy remains strong at present, with solid employment and consumption data. The crude oil market reacted flatly to geopolitical news. Despite the continued tension between the United States and Iran, oil prices remained in a narrow range and implied volatility fell from high levels. The Trump administration has an incentive to push for a deal with Iran before the election to avoid higher oil prices pushing up inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions have intensified, and the United States has only reached an agreement with one of 195 potential trading partners before the end of the EU tariff suspension on July 9. Key time points include: the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States on July 14, the end of the China-US tariff suspension on August 12, and the expiration of the tariff exemption for Chinese goods on August 31. These events may trigger market volatility, but the China-US trade negotiations are still expected to reach a stable result. The cryptocurrency market has entered a seasonal downturn, with BTC's short-term implied volatility falling below 40%, and put option premiums reflecting cautious market sentiment. Month-end option expiration, rebalancing fund flows, and systematic deleveraging have dominated recent price movements.