Fed Minutes Keep Bitcoin Traders Guessing as Iran Risk Clouds the Next Four Weeks

• Fed minutes showed officials debating both possible rate cuts and possible hikes, with inflation and the Iran war pulling policy in opposite directions.
• Bitcoin is hovering near $71,000, and analysts are split between a recovery if risk appetite improves and another setback if macro pressure returns.

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The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes did not give markets a clean signal. Some officials said rate cuts could still be needed later this year if growth weakens. Others argued that upward adjustments might become necessary if inflation stays above target, especially if higher energy costs keep feeding through the economy.

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in March, while its projections still pointed to a median year-end policy rate of 3.4%, which broadly implies one cut this year rather than a fast easing cycle.

Rates, oil and the return of macro

That matters for Bitcoin because the token is trading more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean safe haven. It rose with the broader relief move after the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but the truce already looks fragile and oil remains well above prewar levels. Traders now price only about a one-in-four chance of a Fed cut by year-end, after briefly betting more aggressively on easing.

The $75,000 question

For the next four weeks, the near-term bullish case is straightforward. If the ceasefire holds, oil stays contained and softer inflation data rebuilds confidence in future Fed cuts, Bitcoin could extend higher from the current $71,000 area.

That case also gets support from renewed institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in about $471 million on April 6, the strongest daily inflow since late February. Longer-term bulls such as Bernstein have argued Bitcoin may already have found a floor as institutional ownership reshapes the market.

The bearish case is less complicated, honestly. If the Iran ceasefire breaks down, oil climbs again and rate-cut hopes fade, Bitcoin could lose momentum quickly. More cautious analysts are watching whether it can reclaim $75,000 decisively. Without that, the market still looks vulnerable to another pullback rather than a clean breakout.

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