Crude prices tumbled on Wednesday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war. The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel plunged more than 15% from Tuesday’s highs above $106.00 to consolidate around $90.00 at the time of writing.
The US and Iran reached a last-minute agreement late Tuesday to cease the hostilities for two weeks, and Tehran promised safe passage for Oil and Gas vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is still fragile, amid reports of rocket attacks in Gulf countries, but optimism about a more stable peace deal prevails.
Trump claimed “total and complete victory”, while the Iranian National Security Council announced that direct talks with the US will kick off on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, with Tehran’s 10-point proposal as the starting point.
Oil remains well above pre-war prices
From a wider perspective, however, prices remain nearly 40% above pre-war levels. Investors remain cautious about a durable peace in an extremely volatile region, and the damage to oilfields in the Gulf area is likely to hamper a significant increment in Crude supply for some time.
Last weekend, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase their output quotas by 206K barrels per day from May 1. This decision, which was taken with scepticism by the market due to the closure of the Hormuz gateway, might provide further relief if peace negotiations progress.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-steadies-near-9000-after-a-ceasefire-led-sell-off-202604080827
