Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $92,000 yesterday with its recovery, but fell back to $90,000 before the US Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday.
While the market is confident that the Fed will cut the exchange rate by 25 basis points, statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to be crucial in determining BTC’s direction. At this point, the likelihood of a rapid Bitcoin recovery to $100,000 remains tied to risk perception.
With just one day left until the Fed’s decision, Standard Chartered stated that it expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points.
According to Reuters, Standard Chartered analysts said the December interest rate decision would not be as easy as “95 to 5” but would be narrowly decided by around 60 to 40.
Analysts said that the prolonged government shutdown has deepened disagreements within the Fed due to the limited economic data it uses as a basis for interest rate decisions.
Standard Chartered predicted that the Fed could keep interest rates steady for an extended period into 2026, although a cut is expected in December.
FED May Cut Interest Rates in January and March Too!
Economists at Citigroup, in addition to Standard Chartered, also released their Fed interest rate forecasts. Citi analysts took a relatively more moderate view.
At this point, Citi economists said that the Fed’s interest rate cut this week could lead to additional cuts in January and March next year.
However, economists said the lack of release of key economic data due to the government shutdown could pose a problem for the Fed’s future interest rate policy.
Consequently, Citi assessed that due to the lags and gaps in recent macro indicators such as employment and inflation, the Fed will prioritize managing downside risks to the economy in the short term and is likely to continue interest rate cuts.
However, Citi added that due to the lack of sufficient data, the Fed may issue a message on a meeting-by-meeting basis and may not give clear signals about the timing and size of additional rate cuts.
*This is not investment advice.
Source: https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/standard-chartered-and-citi-announce-fed-rate-forecasts-december-cut-but-only-for-2026/
