Bitcoin is struggling once again after dropping below $85k earlier today. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is heading into 2026 in bearish territory, and some analysts are already predicting a long-term bear market. According to a useful analytical tool called BTC CVDD (Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed), the cryptocurrency is set to hit a bottom around $45,000 this time.
The BTC CVDD Metric
BTC CVDD is a crypto analytical tool used to track the age and dollar value of Bitcoin sold by long-term holders. It is the ratio of the cumulative value of Coin Days Destroyed in USD to the market age in days, adjusted by a scaling factor. CVDD has been useful for predicting BTC market bottoms in the past, and it could provide crucial levels to watch for this time as well.
Popular crypto analyst Ali tweeted:
“$45,880 is what the CVDD suggests as a potential bottom for Bitcoin $BTC.”
He also provided a detailed analysis of the BTC CVDD graph and showed the relationship between past ATHs and bottoms since the first crypto halving of 2012:
TC CVDD analysis is a helpful tool for predicting the bottom. However, the graph still doesn’t expect the end of a crypto bull run or a price rebound.
What to Make of the CVDD Analysis?
BTC’s latest ATH was set less than 2 months ago. The digital currency has since recorded a 31% price drop and is struggling around the $85k price level at press time. So, if the new ATH of this cycle has already been recorded, the CVDD analysis predicts that we will see BTC depreciate to the $40k range again at some point.
However, there is still a slim chance that the premier digital currency can recover from the bearish territory below $100k and rebound quickly to new highs. This change in fortunes can alter the CVDD model’s calculations and yield an updated figure.
Furthermore, when the price of Bitcoin falls to or below the CVDD line, it has often signaled a potential buying opportunity. Currently, the CVDD line is well above Bitcoin’s retail price, making it a great buying opportunity for traders. However, many of the investors could be looking for a potential bottom, and CVDD is a great place to start.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/why-bitcoin-could-crash-to-45000-bottom-as-metric-signals-long-term-bear-market-ahead/
