United States head coach Mauricio Pochettino coaches winger Max Arfsten during the international friendly match against Paraguay in November in Chester, Pa.
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
In the aftermath of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw held on Friday afternoon in Washington, there has been an almost universal agreement among American media that the U.S. men’s national team received a favorable draw.
The Americans will face Australia, Paraguay and the winner of UEFA Playoff C (Turkiye, Slovakia, Romania or Kosovo) in their Group D round robin. The top two finishers will advance automatically to the 32-team knockout stage. And eight third-place finishers out of 12 groups will also progress.
And as a host nation and the highest ranked Group D side in the FIFA World Rankings, the Americans will be favorites not only to advance from their group but also win it, something they haven’t accomplished since 2010.
But it may not be as straightforward as the early projections suggest, for a few reasons.
Group Balance
The Americans eluded a couple of the obvious worst-case scenarios by avoiding Croatia, Morocco or one of the South American teams in Pot 2. But in failing to draw a European team before Pot 4, they also ensured that they would avoid one of the true minnows of the competition, because tournament regulations would force them to be paired with one of the European playoff pathways.
Group D Teams (FIFA World Rankings)
United States (14)
Australia (26)
Paraguay (39)
*Turkiye (25)
*Slovakia (45)
*Romania (47)
*Kosovo (80)
*Potential European playoff winner
And if Turkiye wins its playoff, it would create a group where all four teams are inside FIFA’s current Top 40. The only other place that’s possible is Group F, depending on which European team joins the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.
To think of it another way, while every game in the Americans’ group should be realistically winnable, every game could also be realistically losable. That isn’t the case in some other groups.
Unfamiliar Role
There’s also the reality that entering the World Cup as a group favorite will be an unfamiliar feeling. It’s never happened for the Americans in the program’s modern history, not even in 1994 when they previously hosted and were drawn into a group with Colombia, Romania and Switzerland.
Odds To Win Group D
United States +125
UEFA Path D winner +250
Paraguay +300
Australia +650
Odds via Bet365
Taking on that role can be a difficult adjustment for teams, in part because it’s likely to influence the tactical posture of opponents. The Americans have typically thrived on the world stage when they’re able to play on the counterattack and in transition. But as a host nation and a moderate group favorite (+125 odds via Bet365), the USMNT may encounter opponents more likely to adopt a more conservative posture and challenge the Americans to be protagonists.
It’s a role the Americans have only regularly occupied when playing in Concacaf against Central American or Carribean nations. And those opponents aren’t nearly as dangerous as countering sides as those with the talent level of Paraguay, Australia or Turkiye.
Familiarity, not Fear
Lastly, there’s the potential for the Americans to be approaching a group stage that includes two teams they’ve played friendlies against in the previous year.
The USMNT suffered a 2-1 loss to Turkey in the June buildup to the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup. Then last month they earned a 2-1 victory over Paraguay. Both games were played on American soil, and both games were clearly winnable for either side.
USMNT recent friendlies vs. potential Group D opponents
USA 1, Turkiye 2
June 7, 2025 | Hartford, Conn.
USA: McGlynn 1’; TUR: Güler (24’), Aktürkoglu (27’)
USA 2, Paraguay 1
Nov 15, 2025 | Chester, Pa.
USA: Reyna (4’), Balogun (71’); PAR: Arce (10’)
It’s impossible to say exactly what impact that could have. But in high leverage matches, typically more familiarity makes the margins between winning and losing smaller. And that often benefits the underdogs, who for once won’t be the United States.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianquillen/2025/12/05/the-us-can-win-its-2026-world-cup-group-but-it-wont-be-easy/
