Bitcoin Price Analysis: Drop to $80K Still Possible if BTC Doesn’t Reclaim This Key Level Soon

Bitcoin’s relief bounce has slowed down following an aggressive short-term rally. After jumping past key levels last week, buyers now face two major challenges: reclaiming control above resistance and dealing with weakening on-chain metrics.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC’s daily chart shows a clear bounce from the $80K demand zone, pushing price back into the $90K–$93K resistance block. The asset also remains trapped inside the descending channel and has now stalled just below the upper trendline resistance.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages (now both around 108K) still sit way above the current price. As long as BTC remains below these MAs, the broader trend can’t flip bullish. The RSI also reflects uncertainty, sitting around 45 and failing to break into bullish territory.

This makes the $90K–$95K area the most critical short-term zone. A clean break and daily close above this region could signal a trend shift. Until then, this move remains a bear market rally inside a larger downtrend.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, Bitcoin has formed a structure resembling a breakout and retest from a descending trendline that began forming in late October. After multiple rejections at $94K, BTC pierced above this trendline but is now hovering just around the $91K level again.

While the local market structure looks constructive, a bearish divergence is evident on the RSI, and momentum is weakening. If buyers fail to hold above the $90K level in the coming sessions, a drop back toward the $80K zone is on the table. On the flip side, a solid push above $94K would put 100k+ targets back in play quickly.

On-Chain Analysis

Active Addresses (100-Day Moving Average)

The on-chain picture is not helping the investors much right now. Active Bitcoin addresses have been steadily declining since February 2025, even while the price made new all-time highs. That divergence finally played out during the sharp drop in October and November.

Now, even though price has bounced from 80k to 91k, active addresses (measured with the 100-day SMA) continue to fall, recently dipping below the 875k level. This suggests that retail and user activity is still shrinking, and the rally is likely being driven by fewer participants, possibly whales or institutional traders.

Sustained rallies typically require renewed network activity and user engagement. Until a trend reversal in address activity occurs, this bounce remains suspect from a fundamental perspective.

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