JPM analysts say Strategy’s stronger balance sheet outweigh miner pressure and supports Bitcoin stability

On December 4, JPMorgan stated that MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) stability is more critical in determining the short-term course of Bitcoin than the recent increase in miner selling. According to the JPMorgan report, the MSTR’s balance-sheet strength continues to reassure markets despite a dropping hashrate and increased operational pressure on miners.

The JPMorgan analysts, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, stated in a report released on Wednesday that BTC’s recent drop in hashrate and mining challenges reflect China’s retaliation against its prohibition on BTC mining, following an increase in private mining activity. The analysts further stated that the drop reflects the retreat of high-cost miners outside of China as lower prices and higher energy costs put pressure on profitability.  

JPM sees miner equities breaking Bitcoin correlation

JPM experts revealed that Strategy’s enterprise value-to-bitcoin holdings ratio, which is determined by dividing the market value of its debt, preferreds, and equity by the market value of its bitcoin, is currently at 1.13. The experts further stated that the BTC’s market value of 1.13 follows a significant decrease in the second half of this year.

Notably, the analysts argued that if the ratio remains above 1.0, MSTR will eventually avoid selling bitcoins, and investors will likely feel more comfortable.

The JPM experts stated that “the bitcoin price continues to hover below its production cost,” which is causing sell pressure on the first and biggest cryptocurrency, even though a decrease in hashrate typically increases miner earnings.

JPM analysts stated that the production cost of Bitcoin is now estimated to be $90,000, down from $94,000 in the previous month. The revised estimate is based on the assumption that power will cost $0.05 per kWh. The analysts predict that for higher-cost businesses, a $0.01 increase per kWh will result in a $18,000 increase in production costs.

According to the JPM report, some high-cost miners have been compelled to sell bitcoins in recent weeks as profits are squeezed due to rising electricity costs and a decline in the price of BTC. Nevertheless, JPM stated that miners are not the primary force behind bitcoin’s upcoming development. Instead, they cited Strategy’s balance sheet and its capacity to refrain from selling BTC.

In October, JPM analysts noted that publicly traded BTC mining companies have deviated from the price performance of Bitcoin in recent months. According to the JPM, the change indicates a “clear breakdown” in the relationship between the price of the cryptocurrency and equities that mine Bitcoin.

According to analysts, the shift to AI is providing miners with more consistent and higher-margin revenue streams, as opposed to the more erratic and increasingly less lucrative bitcoin mining industry. The experts said that equity markets have begun to decouple from changes in the price of bitcoin by re-rating these companies based on their AI potential rather than their exposure to bitcoin.

Strategy builds a major USD reserve for stability

On December 3, MSTR announced it has established a $1.44 billion U.S dollar reserve to cover interest on its outstanding debt and dividend payments on its preferred stock.  According to on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant, the action indicates that the Strategy is being ready for future declining market situations.

The goal of Strategy’s USD reserve, which was financed by its most recent MSTR at-the-market share issuance program, is to pay dividends for at least a year. The corporation stated that it intends to gradually increase the reserve to cover at least 24 months’ worth of expenses.

According to CryptoQuant, this dual-reserve strategy reduces the likelihood of forced bitcoin sales during downturns by maintaining both USD and bitcoin reserves.  However, CryptoQuant stated that the USD reserve also represents a “tactical shift” away from Strategy’s plan from 2020 to November 2025, which was to purchase more bitcoin by issuing convertible debt and shares.

On December 1, Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, stated that the Company currently owns 650,000 BTC, or over $56 billion. He added that the company purchased the BTCs at an average price of $87,000 per BTC, for a total cost of approximately $56.4 billion, including fees and expenditures.

If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.